by: the Common Constitutionalist
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If we are to believe the polls, it would appear that Hillary Clinton has the 2016 presidential election virtually locked up.
As the election draws closers, polls historically become more accurate. The reason for this is that the companies who conduct polls have in their best interest to not only pick the winner, but to be as close as possible to predicting the margin of victory.
Professional polling companies live and die by polls, so accuracy is key to a good reputation – which leads to elite status amongst pollsters and to many more future contracts.
Early on, pollsters have a lot more leeway to get things wrong and even skew the election to the candidate they prefer. But as time becomes short, their livelihoods depend on getting it right. You will see a shift from polling just “adults,” to polling “registered” and “likely voters.”
Knowing this about polls and barring anything such as a Bradley/Wilder effect, this is Clinton’s election to lose. For those unfamiliar, the above “effect” is a circumstance when those being polled say they are voting for one candidate, due to not wanting to appear racist or sexist, or what they may perceive as peer pressure, but actually cast their ballot for another.