Suspect Jobs Report

from: Breitbart

Oct. 5, 2012

Suspicion about the federal government’s September jobs report has fallen on Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis, who appeared on CNBC this morning and defended the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), claiming–falsely–that upward revisions of 86,000 jobs were from the private sector. In fact, the new number is entirely accounted for by upwards revisions to state and federal government payrolls.

The BLS reported that while only 114,000 jobs were created in September–which would have translated into a rise in unemployment from 8.1% to 8.2%–the unemployment rate fell dramatically to 7.8%. That unusual drop is the fastest in nearly three decades, and was unexpected even in the rosiest predictions.

One reason for the rise was an upward revision of 86,000 to the July and August jobs numbers–all of which came from a 91,000 increase in the estimate of public sector jobs. Private sector job estimates were actually revised downward by 5,000.

In addition, the BLS reported a large rise in the number of part-time jobs, adding 600,000 jobs to the total–a dramatic increase of 7.5%, not explained by any other economic indicators–and raising questions about whether the government had changed the way it counted part-time workers.

Solis was adamant today in defending both the revisions and the BLS’s methodology for counting part-time workers–relying largely on the upwards revisions for July and August jobs (emphasis added):

CNBC: We’re getting bombarded by people who do not believe the number. They believe this number was fixed and typed to coincide with Election Day. What do you say to them?…I’ll rephrase the question. A lot of people do not believe the 7.8 number. They believe that somehow BLS fixed this to coincide with the election cycle. What is labor’s response?

Solis: You know, I’m insulted when I hear that because we have a very professional, civil service organization where you have top, top economists that work at the BLS. They’ve been doing these calculations. These are — these are our best trained and best-skilled individuals working in the BLS, and it’s really ludicrous to hear that kind of statement, and I say that because just look at the — we have to look at what happens across the board, not just in one month, but look what happened in the last two months. We also saw revisions there upwards of 86,000 additional jobs added and this brings us now to 5.2 million private sector jobs across the board, we saw 104 private sector jobs created….

CNBC: Before I let you go, you say skepticism over the numbers are ludicrous. You say you’re insulted. Is there a danger, you believe, when large sections was country don’t believe the data. Not that it’s ever been considered gospel, but when you have disbelief how much danger is embedded in that?

Solis: I will tell you that we look at each report differently. We just saw revisions for the last two months and this happens. I mean, these are estimates that obviously, the BLS puts out. They do the best calculation, using the best measurements and tools and we’ve been using them for the past 70 years. We haven’t changed anything and the information that I received is given to me by our professional, civil service staff in the BLS.

Note that Solis describes the 86,000 upward revision as if it were an increase in private sector jobs, though in fact the increase came entirely from revisions to public sector payrolls by cash-strapped federal and state governments. Instead of shedding jobs, as previously claimed, governments have been adding jobs.

A Few are Awakening

From:

 

A funny thing happened upon release of the monthly unemployment statistics yesterday.

A few journalists in the mainstream media began to wake up.

While there are still plenty of headlines floating around today that are some variation on “Unemployment Down Despite Lack of Jobs, Obama Yay,” a few journalists appear to have noticed the oxymoron inherent in the story pushed by the Obama Labor Department.

You’d be excused if your initial reaction is “it’s about time.”

Reuters and a few news outlets got it right this time. Instead of following the lead of the Associated Press, which published a story earlier this week predicting unemployment below 8 percent by election time, Reuters’ headline reported “US hiring slows, spells trouble for economy, Obama.”

While the unemployment rate technically fell from 8.2 percent in March to 8.1 percent in April, only about 115,000 jobs were added, not enough to account for the statistical improvement of jobless figures.

The secret number that’s being buried this month is the increasing number of people who are just giving up and leaving the labor force altogether. About half a million unemployed people who were counted as being in the labor force in March were removed from the April figures, drastically shrinking the number of people considered unemployed, without increasing jobs.

The Associated Press report predicting sub-8 percent unemployment ran this week before the release of the new labor figures. The prediction titled “Steady Job Gains To Sustain US Recovery” was based on interviews with obviously pro-Obama economists, included some outright boosterism:

“Falling unemployment would boost President Barack Obama’s prospects in November. Going back to 1956, no president has lost re-election when the unemployment rate dropped in the two years before the election.”

The AP’s spin on today’s unemployment figures was “Jobs Lost to Recession Trickle Back.”

The Associated Press’ chairman is William Dean Singleton, who last month slobbered all over himself while introducing President Obama at a luncheon. Singleton also owns hundreds of newspapers across the country and is probably singlehandedly responsible for running more newspapers into the ground than any human being in the last century.

Under Singleton’s leadership, those newspapers that haven’t closed outright have whittled their staffs down to near nothing, virtually eliminated local and original reporting, and ultimately just become print versions of the Associated Press and New York Time wire service, with local banners and ads.

As the Associated Press has swung Left under Singleton, a substantial portion of America’s newspapers have blindly followed.

Reuters, owned by the Thomson Corporation of Canada, operates in somewhat different circles than the AP leadership. One story doesn’t mean any media outlet is changing its tune, but it would be nice if professional reporters started leaving the rose-colored glasses at home when covering the Obama Administration.

Editors notes:

1) The margin of error for that 115,000 jobs number is 100,000. My prediction; the paultry 115,000 will quitely be revised down. Watch for it next week. It always happens.

2) 125,000 to 150,000 jobs must be added each month just to keep pace with work force population growth.

3) The Workforce or Labor Participation Rate is at 63.6%, the lowest in 30 years (1981). The labor force dropped 522,000 off the books to total over 88,000,000 discouraged Americans no longer looking for work.

Simply put, by dropping people off the books, the government can claim any unemployment rate it wishes without adding a single new job.