Dems Get Ready To Blame Russia If They Don’t Take The House In November
Democrats expect that fierce anti-Trump sentiment will sweep them into power in the House, if not the Senate, this November. If that fails to happen, they are already preparing their excuse: Russian meddling.
“Democrats may have already won the House,” declared the news site Axios this week, citing four reasons the election was a lock.
Certainly, history favors Democratic gains in November, since the party out of power tends to pick up dozens of seats in the midterm elections, particularly when the sitting president is unpopular. Recent state and local elections also have shown the Democratic base highly mobilized.
But polling analyst Nate Silver, responding to the Axios article, tweeted that “Seems like people haven’t learned too much from 2016. Democrats are modest favorites to win the House, but not particularly heavy ones; less than Clinton was in November 2016.”
The Democrat’s edge in “generic ballot” polls shrank from +13 in late December to +6 in early February, according to the Real Clear Politics average. It’s since rebounded somewhat, but is still well below that December peak.
Even that edge might not be enough to land Democrats a majority. As the New York Times explains, Democratic voters are concentrated in urban areas, which means a strong turnout could result in “piling up extra votes in districts Republicans would have lost anyway.”
This reality might explain why Democrats are right now making such a huge fuss about the potential for Russia meddling in the midterm elections.