by: the Common Constitutionalist
It’s been a couple of decades since we’ve experienced a powerful El Niño event. El Niño is a rise of the ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which in turn can cause some unusual weather events, such as heavy rains in the West, which of course they need desperately.
But the coming El Niño is being hailed as potentially much stronger than past events. And naturally, as one might expect, it’s been linked to global warming as the cause. Of course, what else would it be?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is already predicting that this El Niño is “set to boost global warming to new record levels.”
And Kevin Trenberth, a climatologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in Boulder Colorado, says, “In an era of global warming, ocean currents and weather systems might not be able to bleed off all the heat pumped into the tropical seas. Periodically, it has to get rid of the excess that builds up, and that safety valve is El Niño.”
So what is that supposed to mean? Does it mean that the El Niño is merely a naturally occurring weather phenomenon that assists the earth in rebalancing the global climate? Or is he saying that this El Niño will be different?
Well, “forecasters now believe that the ocean and atmosphere have joined forces in such a way that further warming and shifts in global weather patterns are likely…”
But isn’t that just weather? Have forecasters always believed prior to this new El Niño, that the oceans and atmosphere have been independent of one another? Look at the way they write this stuff. The claims, that are really non-claims that they make, insinuating that global warming is the cause of everything. That things are “likely” or not and “may or may not” happen. These CYA terms are riddled throughout these global warming assertions.
Steve Zebiak, a Columbia University climate scientist says “that the run-up to this El Niño was looking like the first successfully predicted event. In the last few months, though, things have changed. Now we’re in a situation where I can’t think of a good analog for this entire past 12 months.”
Translation: we don’t have a clue what’s going on, but we can’t say that because we’ll lose our grant money, and will look like the frauds that we are. Zebiak continues by not saying anything really: “A consensus of dynamic climate models now show a strengthening of the El Niño through late summer: though the reliability of the forecast models – which change throughout the year – is typically at its lowest right about now.” Huh?
And here we are – right back to the crux of the problem – dependence upon computer climate models. Always remember: garbage in – garbage out. Climate models will always show the cause of everything to be global warming because this is the narrative that must be proven by the models. This is the one and only reason warming alarmist scientists use computer climate models. To prove global warming!
Occasionally though, a scientist will slip up and tell the truth as Kevin Trenberth did. He says that regarding the confusion of the coming El Niño is the “inadequacy of computer simulations that scientists use to study El Niño and global warming.”
He also states that the computer models do not do “an adequate job of simulating certain key aspects of climate, such as the effects of cloud cooling and the feedback between the oceans and atmosphere. So, for the moment, the theorized connection between El Niño and global warming is still in the realm of speculation.”
And there you go. In other words – we sure wish we could prove what we claim – that global warming is the cause of this El Niño and every other weather event on the planet, but we really have no idea. But we are climate scientists, so our idle speculation is superior to yours.