Leftist Economist Paul Krugman is Like the Cleveland Browns

by: the Common Constitutionalist

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Paul Krugman – Biggest Loser

My apologies to all you Browns fans.

For regular readers, you know I use a lot of football analogies. Well – here’s another.

Say you get permission from the NFL to create an expansion team – a brand new professional football franchise.

You, the owner, do your due diligence and hire who you feel is the best available Coach and General Manager.

The League office encourages other teams to aid your new franchise, lending their expertise and advice on various issues regarding football operations, free agency, the draft, etc.

One day you sit down with your new General Manager and Coach and start making calls to other teams for guidance. So whom do you call? And who do you not?

If you’re smart, you call the proven winners – starting with the New England Patriots (of course), then move on to the Steelers, Broncos, Packers, Cowboys and Giants. You seek out the proven winners – franchises that show up in the playoffs either every year, or at least most years.

Who you don’t call is the Cleveland Browns, the Buffalo Bills, or Jacksonville Jaguars. No offence, but why would you or anyone take advice on building a winning franchise from teams that rarely, if ever, win. read more

Look for Honest Economic Reporting to Begin Again

by: the Common Constitutionalist

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2017 will prove to be a very interesting year. Oh sure, Trump’s first 100 days will be chock full of excitement, controversy and consternation. But we should also look forward to, or be prepared for reports from the left on a whole host of issues that have gone unreported or misreported for eight long years.

All of the sudden we should begin to see some honest reporting, now that they will no longer need to shield the public from the folly which has been the Obama presidency and the Obama economy.

Isn’t it funny that Janet Yellen and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have decided now to begin raising interest rates. In the eight years of the booming Obama economic recovery, this is only the second interest hike. The first was a year ago, almost to the day, and that was the first since 2006. And one could easily argue that this last hike of 0.25% is barely on Obama’s watch, as it will have no effect on his presidency.

But they had no where else to go but up. Not that I’m a fan of rate hikes, but prior to last years pitiful 0.25% hike, the Fed’s interest rate had been at 0.0% for the previous seven years, when the FOMC knocked it down to zero in December 2008. read more

Podcast – 4.9 Percent Unemployment and No Jobs – A Look into the Future of Obamacare – Gun Rights Activist gets Sued in Texas

The Government is touting 4.9% unemployment and the Federal Reserve thinks this is great. So great in fact that they are going to start raising interest rates. But this figure is – surprise, surprise – a lie. Let’s take a look at what it really is.

Want to see what our fabulous healthcare system, Obamacare, will look like soon? Just take a look at the British socialized, single payer system and the latest reports of rationing. This is what we have to look forward to.

A County in the state of Texas is not happy with a gun rights advocate who has written to them complaining about not being to carry his weapon in the county courthouse complex. They’ve evidently decided to make an example of him.

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The Unemployment Rate, Another Way to Look at It

Ho Ho Ho – and a Merry Christmas to all at Harpo Studios in Chicago. That wonderful humanitarian, Oprah Winfrey, who can cry on cue, is giving her entire Chicago staff, all 183 people, the old heave-ho just before the holidays, as she and her fortune relocate to Los Angeles. What a Saint!

This prompted me to reflect on their chances of finding gainful employment in this Obama economy. The chances are not good, unless you believe the governments numbers.The current unemployment rate the Obamites are touting is about 5.5%. Of course we know this is bunk. A few months ago Donald Trump claimed the real number was between 18 & 20%. In some sectors, like black unemployment, it is indeed at least that high. The U6 figure is purported to be around 11%, so let’s split the difference and call it 15%.

Rather than explain these figures in the usual dry format with which they are usually, I dragged back out and updated the old Abbott and Costello “Who’s on First” routine. It may still be the funniest stand-up routine ever. However, it’s been modified somewhat to explain how the government reports the unemployment rate. read more

America and Great Britain Are Government Birds of a Feather

by: the Common Constitutionalist

It doesn’t matter where in the world they reside – liberals and progressives in government think and act alike. They have the same philosophy and use the same tactics, regardless of which side of the pond they are on.

Two of the latest shining examples of sameness are the American and British governments’ treatment of unemployment and immigration.

Our government fudges unemployment numbers all the time by using various ways of classifying the unemployed (e.g., the U3 vs. U6). We know they don’t factor in the long term unemployed and underemployed thereby enabling them to claim that the unemployment rate is well under 6%. We know this to be a lie.

Well, I don’t know who learned from whom, but it turns out Great Britain, our kindred spirits from across the pond do the exact same thing. They too are claiming low employment by using the same tactics as we Yanks. read more

Won’t Back Down

from:  at The Blaze

After being harshly criticized for questioning the veracity of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest jobs report, former General Electric CEO Jack Welch on Tuesday evening responded to his detractors in a lengthy and unapologetic op-ed in the Wall Street Journal.

“Imagine a country where challenging the ruling authorities — questioning, say, a piece of data released by central headquarters — would result in mobs of administration sympathizers claiming you should feel ‘embarrassed’ and labeling you a fool, or worse,” writes Welch.

“Soviet Russia perhaps? Communist China? Nope, that would be the United States right now, when a person (like me, for instance) suggests that a certain government datum (like the September unemployment rate of 7.8%) doesn’t make sense,” he adds.

Welch goes on to reiterate his point, that is, that recent BLS data is not just faulty, but “implausible.”

“Unfortunately for those who would like me to pipe down, the 7.8% unemployment figure released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) last week is downright implausible. And that’s why I made a stink about it,” he writes.

The former CEO continues, reminding readers that a) he is not working for the Romney campaign and b) BLS data is hardly free of error.

“The unemployment data reported each month are gathered over a one-week period by census workers, by phone in 70% of the cases, and the rest through home visits. In sum, they try to contact 60,000 households, asking a list of questions and recording the responses,” he writes, adding that the BLS even has an entire page in its “Handbook of Methods” dedicated to explaining the limitation of its data.

“Bottom line: To suggest that the input to the BLS data-collection system is precise and bias-free is — well, let’s just say, overstated,” he adds.

Later on, Welch directly addresses the tweet that got everyone in a twist:

Now, I realize my tweets about this matter have been somewhat incendiary. In my first tweet, sent the night before the unemployment figure was released, I wrote: “Tomorrow unemployment numbers for Sept. with all the assumptions Labor Department can make..wonder about participation assumption??” The response was a big yawn.

My next tweet, on Oct. 5, the one that got the attention of the Obama campaign and its supporters, read: “Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can’t debate so change numbers.”

And here’s the controversial Oct. 5 tweet:

As he did when attacked by MSNBC’s Chris Matthews, Welch maintains that he was simply trying to raise a question, adding that, were he to do it all over again, he would definitely add question marks at the end of the Oct. 5 message.

“But I’m not sorry for the heated debate that ensued. I’m not the first person to question government numbers, and hopefully I won’t be the last,” Welch writes.

“The coming election is too important to be decided on a number. Especially when that number seems so wrong.”

Let My People Work

by: the Common Constitutionalist 

I believe we’ve heard many so-called conservatives claim we are in a jobless recovery.

That’s a hot one. There has been no recovery nor have there been any jobs.

We’ve also heard the democrats out on the talk show circuit and at every available podium spouting off about the 4.5 million jobs Barack Obama has created since taking office.

Well, there may have been jobs created, but a lot more have been lost.

Here’s a fun fact for you. When Obama was crowned King of the world in 2009, there were approximately 142,187,000 people employed in the U.S.

Today the number is 142,101,000. So, as Rush would say, for those of you in Rio Linda, there are about 86,000 fewer people employed today than at the time of Obama’s coronation in 2009.

Just think about that for a second. Consider the bold-faced lies the democrats and the media are foisting on the ill-informed American people. It’s actually criminal. And what of our side? Where is the well-informed conservative on the TV talking-head shows that can say, “You are lying and here is the proof? These are the facts, etc.

Where are the Paul Reveres, riding through the countryside, exclaiming these facts?

I guess, in a way, we are the virtual town criers. “It’s 2012 and all is NOT well”.

Anywho, the real employment figures are bad, but given a little more context, they become even more devastating.

One thing these talking heads never mention is the increase in the overall population growth of this country.

From 2009 to today, American population has increased by 8.8 million. So, there are over 8 million more people living here and we have 86 thousand fewer jobs than 3 years ago?

If they’re not working, what are they doing? Well, they are on some form of government assistance, like welfare, food stamps, disability, etc.

Today, approximately 45 million people are on food stamps. That’s 1 out of every 7 Americans! These aren’t just nameless, faceless strangers. They are friends, neighbors and coworkers, or maybe ex-coworkers in some cases.

People are becoming so desperate that when their unemployment runs out they are applying for social security disability. That way they at least have something to live on.  

Now, I’m not going to discuss, the fraud and abuse by many, scamming the system just to receive a government check instead of finding a job. We all know there is plenty of that. We also know that many people could more heavily rely on their own families for assistance in lieu of the taxpayers. But the number is not that great and it can’t mask the incredibly weak employment figures. Like the 8.1% unemployment number that isn’t.

That’s a fake number. Pure and simple. It’s like a 300 lb. man stepping on a scale that tops out at 200 lbs. Just because the scale only reads 200, doesn’t mean he lost weight. If you recall, there are 6 unemployment categories ranging from U-1 to U-6. The  U-3 number is the one that everyone has settled on. I frankly don’t know why the government, news outlets, et al, have settled on the U-3.  I guess it makes things appear better than they are. If that’s the case, the U-1 number is under 5%. Like magic we could have almost full employment. The fact, or myth, that the U-3 unemployment number dropped from 8.3 to 8.1% is irrelevant.

In the last month alone over 580,000 people just gave up looking for work. The Labor Force Participation Rate, the number of people employed or looking for work, dropped to 63.5%, a level not seen since September, 1981, at the tail end of, hey what do you know, the Carter administration. That’s how that 8.3 dropped to 8.1. Those, over half a million poor souls, are now not counted. Voilà, less unemployment. The real number, the u-6 is up around 15%.

And let’s not forget King Barack’s just enacted, defacto illegal immigration amnesty program . Hey, what’s a million or so more unemployed people who have no job and won’t be able to find one.

Nothing is more essential to moving a family forward, or a nation, than a job, and today America has less of them than when Obama became President. The hope and change experiment needs to come to an end.

So when you meet our conservative candidates out there on the campaign trail, ask them why they’re not pushing the real numbers and calling the fake numbers, what they are, fake. More people need to know this stuff.

Attribution: Bob Beauprez

Jobs? I Don’t See Any

by: the Common Constitutionalist

The President has come out touting the July jobs number as if it were a great thing. To hear him and his minions speak, one would think Obama personally repaired the economy by adding millions of jobs.

In truth, the anemic economy added about 163,000 new jobs. That sounds like a lot, but is isn’t.  It takes approximately 150,000 jobs every month just to keep up with the population growth.

That leaves a paltry 13,000 jobs added. Still, say Obama and the sycophants, we’re heading in the right direction. Really?

As an aside, if you’ve listened to any news recently, you have not heard that 13,000 job number mentioned, or the population growth requirement. No where, except maybe talk radio. All we hear is the 163,000 jobs number, with not a hint of context.

Speaking of context; how about some more. The unemployment rate (the fake one, or U-3) went up from 8.2 to 8.3%. How can that be if we’ve added so many jobs? Listening to the wizards of smart on TV and radio contort themselves trying to explain the anomaly (that really isn’t) is quite amusing.

“Well Larry, it’s really quite complicated. It has to do with several different surveys and metrics we just don’t have the time for in this segment Just know we’re heading in a positive direction”. “Ok, Professor Poindexter; thank you for that extraordinary insight and your patience with our dimwitted audience”.

In truth, it’s not that difficult to understand. I get it, and believe me, I’m no scholar. While 163,000 jobs added, 150,000 are absorbed by natural population expansion. At the same time the workforce saw 150,000 drop out of it. That 150,000 are the people so discouraged, they just stop looking, so, by complicated metrics we can’t understand and magic, they are not even counted in the U-3 figure. That’s why I say the U-3 number is phony.  

We are left with a net loss of 137,000, but you’ll never hear that, except maybe here. That is why the U-3 unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3. The real or U-6 unemployment number is between 15 & 17%.

For blacks and especially teenagers, the picture is much bleaker, for the U-3 rate for blacks is at 14.1% and for all teens, the number is 23.8%. That means the real rate (U-6)  has got to be around 25% and at least 40% respectively. Wow! And Obama will still get over 90% of the black vote. Amazing. Talk about monolithic.

Got Jobs?

Generation Opportunity, one of America’s largest organizations connecting with young adults through a strategy of social media outreach coupled with on-the-ground grassroots organizing, is today releasing the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 18-29 unemployment rate data for May:

· The youth unemployment rate for 18-29 year olds specifically (NSA) for May 2012 is 12.1 percent.

 · The declining labor participation rate has created an additional 1.7 million young adults that are not counted as “unemployed” by BLS because they are not in the labor force, meaning that those young people have given up looking for work due to the lack of jobs.

· If the labor force participation rate were factored into the overall 18-29 youth unemployment calculation, the actual 18-29-unemployment rate would rise to 16.9 percent (NSA).

Generation Opportunity President Paul T. Conway, former Chief of Staff of the United States Department of Labor, where the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is housed, and the former Chief of Staff of the United States Office of Personnel Management (OPM) responds to the May 2012 jobs numbers:

 “The young adult unemployment rate, now at 12.1 percent for those 18-29 years old, represents yet another chapter in the indefensible saga of how a great generation is being denied economic opportunity, jobs, critical skills, and the ability to pursue their dreams.”

 “As summer begins, the ranks of all those frustrated by the lack of opportunities are joined by recent high school and college graduates.  Their enthusiasm to join the work force has been slammed by the same harsh economic status quo their brothers and sisters have been experiencing for the past few years – one marked by record high unemployment, a patchwork of part-time jobs, or jobs outside their chosen profession.

“Through no fault of their own, an increasing number of young Americans have begun to lose hope and have dropped out of the workforce entirely, disillusioned by the lack of jobs and dismayed at a White House that attacks America’s job creators and employers, while simultaneously putting Americans and their futures into deeper debt.”

“Today, we are calling on young Americans across the nation – all those who are unemployed, those who are working multiple part-time jobs, and those concerned about friends and family members who are themselves in this situation – to call the White House in the coming days and tell President Obama the time is now for real change. America can do better.”

 Generation Opportunity is encouraging its Facebook fans, as well as its thousands of grassroots supporters across the nation, to call the White House at (202) 456-1414 and demand that the policies of the last three and a half years, which have stifled job creation, be reversed in favor of policies that free up Americans to create jobs, to hire, and to restore the American tradition of access to opportunity for all. To see our Facebook call to action, go to:
https://www.facebook.com/BeingAmericanByGO

Adding insult to injury, our dear President plans to add another 800,000 (his estimate) illegals to an already suffering young workforce. My estimate is at least double, if not triple that number.

Of course, we know Obama doesn’t really care if these illegals actually find work. It’s for votes, not work.

Attribution: New York Post

We’re Hummin Now

By Ed Carson, INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY:

The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in February vs. expectations for 206,000, continuing a recent trend of decent hiring activity. The unemployment rate held at 8.3%.

But America remains mired in the longest jobs recession since the Great Depression. It’s been 49 months since the U.S. hit peak employment in January 2008. And with nonfarm payrolls still 5.33 million below their old high, the jobs slump will continue for several more years.

The previous jobs recession record — 47 months — came during and after the comparatively mild 2001 recession, which saw unemployment climb to only 6.3%. The average job recovery time since 1980 is 29 months, not including the current slump.

The labor market won’t truly return to health until some 10 million positions are created to rehire all those who lost their jobs and to absorb new workers.

The longest jobs recession in decades coincides, not coincidentally, with the longest stretch of anemic economic performance on record.

U.S. gross domestic profit hasn’t risen 4% or more in any quarter since the first quarter of 2006. That’s by far the longest such stretch on record going back to 1950. The only other sizable sub-par stretch was a three-year span from late 2000 to mid-2003 during the prior recession and sluggish recovery.

The current expansion, which began in mid-2009, is particularly disappointing, given the deep recession that preceded it. The best growth was a three-quarter run of 3.8%-3.9% gains.

After the severe 1981-82 recession, the U.S. economy enjoyed a five-quarter stretch of 7% or more — following a 5.1% annualized gain.

The U.S. economy is up just 6.2% above the level at the end of the recession vs. 14.9% in the 10 quarters after the 1981-82 slump.

President Obama may take hope that the U.S. economy has picked up from near-stall speed to a modest pace in recent months. But after the mild 1990-1991 downturn, the U.S. economy rose tepidly for a few quarters before growing more than 4% in every quarter of 1992. That still wasn’t enough to keep the first President Bush from losing to Bill Clinton.

And nobody is predicting 4% growth in 2012.