Another Year of Obama Recovery

by: the Common Constitutionalist

The much ballyhooed April jobs number is out and it once again shows how well the Obama economic recovery is going.

It’s been almost 7 years. Shouldn’t we have recovered by now? Heck, in Reagan’s seventh year, we were running like a well oiled machine, but I digress.

Yesterday Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge  had an interesting perspective on the One’s recovery progress. He wrote that underlying April’s great jobs number of 223,000 is a disturbing trend. Of that number, only 1000 manufacturing jobs were added.

He wrote: “Putting this in perspective, for every manufacturing job added in April there were 26 new waiters and bartenders confirming the robustness of America’s jobs recovery.”

Durden goes on to explain that “since the start of the second great recession in December 2007, there have been 1.4 million manufacturing jobs lost. They have been almost completely offset by the 1.3 million waiter and bartender jobs gained. In short: serving food is the new making stuff.”

He also attached a chart showing which industries gained and which lost. Interestingly while government added 10,000 jobs in April, the biggest losers were manufacturing, which gained only the aforementioned 1000 jobs and wholesale trade (business-to-business) which lost 4000 jobs. But by far, the biggest loser was mining and logging, which lost 11,000 jobs in March and another 12,000 in April. Gee – I wonder what type of mining might be losing so many jobs. Could it be the coal mining industry perhaps? read more

Which Recovery Summer Is This Anyway?

by: the Common Constitutionalist

So, I think we’re heading into our 4th or 5th recover summer. I’m not sure which. There’s so much recovering going on, it’s hard to keep up.

What?! Don’t tell me you don’t remember the summer of 2010, when Vice President Joe Biden declared, and kicked off his “Summer of Recovery” tour?

Politico proudly wrote in June of 2010: “BREAKING — OBAMA, BIDEN DECLARE “RECOVERY SUMMER”: Vice President Biden today will kick off “Recovery Summer,” a six-week-long push designed to highlight the jobs accompanying a surge in stimulus-funded projects to improve highways, parks, drinking water and other public works.”

Just how well has the recovery gone, you may ask? Well, with every recovery, there must be jobs…and lots of them. Let’s see how that portion of the “Recovery” has gone.

(All of the following italicized quotes are attributed to CNS News)

CNS News reports: “When Obama took office in January 2009, the labor force participation rate was 65.7 percent. By the beginning of 2013, the start of Obama’s second term, it had dropped to 63.6 percent. Since January 2014, when the participation rate was 63.0, it has continued to decline, hitting a 36-year low of 62.8 percent in May.” read more

Real Unemployment = 11.4%, Don’t be Fooled!

From Zero Hedge: Real Jobless Rate Is 11.4% With Realistic Labor Force Participation Rate

One does not need to be a rocket scientist to grasp the fudging the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) has been doing every month for years now in order to bring the unemployment rate lower: the BLS constantly lowers the labor force participation rate as more and more people “drop out” of the labor force for one reason or another.

[EC (Editorial Comment): The Labor Force Participation Rate is a measure of the active portion of an economy’s labor force. The participation rate refers to the number of people who are either employed or are actively looking for work. The number of people who are no longer actively searching for work are not included in the participation rate. In a poor economy, such as this, many people get discouraged and stop looking for employment and as a result, the participation rate, by percentage, decreases.]

While there are some floating speculation that this is due to early retirement, this is completely counterfactual when one also considers the overall rise in the general civilian non institutional population.

In order to back out this fudge we are redoing an analysis we did first back in August 2010, which shows what the real unemployment rate would be using a realistic labor force participation rate.

To get that we used the average [labor force participation] rate since 1980, or ever since the great moderation began. As it happens, this long-term average is 65.8% (chart 1).

We then apply this participation rate to the civilian noninstitutional population to get what an “implied” labor force number is, and additionally calculate the implied unemployed using this more realistic labor force. We then show the difference between the reported and implied unemployed (chart 2).

Finally, we calculate the jobless rate using this new implied data. It won’t surprise anyone that as of December, the real implied unemployment rate was 11.4% (final chart) – basically where it has been ever since 2009 – and at 2.9% delta to reported, represents the widest divergence to reported data since the early 1980s.

And because we know this will be the next question, extending this lunacy, America will officially have no unemployed, when the Labor Force Participation rate hits 58.5%, which should be just before the presidential election.

[EC: Someone, with more clout than I, must pick up this torch & carry it. Do any of our elected officials or those running for office have the courage to challenge these lies?]